However, the growth rate of new mobile internet subscribers is slowing. From 2015 to 2021, over 200 million people per year began using mobile devices to access the internet.
In the last two years, that number has decreased to 160 million annually. Analysis by Rest of World suggests that developing countries are seeing a plateau in mobile internet subscribers, indicating that in countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Mexico, the most accessible populations to get online are already connected, and expanding further will be challenging.
GSMA gathers data by surveying nationally representative samples in each country and correlates the results with similar studies.
GSMA head of the Mobile for Development Max Cuvellier Giacomelli said that large swaths of the global population still lack access to mobile internet primarily due to affordability issues.
Despite significant drops in data costs in recent years, the International Telecommunication Union, a UN agency focused on information and communications technologies, notes substantial regional disparities.
For example, the cost of data in Africa is more than twice that in the Americas, the second-most expensive region.
“You get this peak of adoption initially because it’s new. The people who can afford it see the value. They knew what the internet was, and suddenly, you got it in your pocket,” he said.
In countries like China, the US, and Singapore, a high proportion of the population is already connected to mobile internet—80 per cent, 81 per cent, and 93 per cent, respectively. Thus, it is no surprise that the rate of new mobile internet subscriptions has slowed.
The rate of new users has also slowed in countries like Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Pakistan, where only 37 per cent, 34 per cent, and 24 per cent of the population currently use mobile internet.
Coverage remains a challenge, although data suggests improvement is happening quickly. Currently, 350 million people worldwide, or four per cent of the global population, live in areas not covered by a mobile broadband network.
GSMA reports that sub-Saharan Africa has the highest coverage gap of any global region. Still, mobile coverage in this area has expanded from 83 per cent to 87 per cent between 2021 and 2023.
Recent advancements in satellite technology may help close this coverage gap by bringing mobile internet to rural or remote areas lacking mobile infrastructure. For instance, SpaceX’s Starlink is now available in over 100 countries and offers a roaming plan.
The data shows relatively steady rates of adoption over time but also highlights how unique products can drive a sudden surge in mobile internet access. For example, in 2016, the Indian telecommunications giant Reliance Jio introduced a welcome package with 4 gigabytes of free daily data for customers.
This led to a nearly 58 per cent increase in mobile internet subscriptions in India between 2015 and 2016. Giacomelli attributes this surge directly to Reliance Jio’s programme. The telecom continued to offer free mobile internet through early 2017, attracting new subscribers.
“The thing you see in India is just this accelerated growth that would otherwise have been flattened over maybe [a period] twice as long,” Giacomelli said. “But once you’ve captured the population who can afford it, then suddenly you start getting slow growth again.”
Despite the late 2010s surge, India’s growth rate for mobile internet subscribers has slowed in recent years. As of October 2024, almost half, or 46 per cent, of the population is still not connected to mobile internet.
Even in countries with high rates of mobile internet subscription, stubborn pockets of people without mobile internet access remain. In China, for example, 80 per cent of the population has access to mobile internet, but subscription rates among the remaining 280 million people are slowing.
Recent advances in satellite technology could bring mobile internet to new users in rural areas. In August, China began launching a satellite internet network set to rival SpaceX’s Starlink to bring everyone online.
