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HP and Dell shares tumble over PC market recovery concerns

by on28 November 2024


Disappointing forecasts

Shares of Dell and HP suffered sharp declines after issuing disappointing forecasts, raising concerns about a faltering recovery in the personal computer (PC) market.

The cocaine nose jobs of Wall Street expected to see predictions about the PC market ticking up, particularly with all this talk about artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled devices.

Dell's shares plummeted by 11 per cent, erasing approximately $11 billion from its $99.50 billion market valuation, as the company projected quarterly revenue below analysts' expectations.

HP also saw its shares fall by five per cent, wiping nearly $2 billion off its $37.68 billion market capitalisation, following a profit forecast that fell short of Wall Street estimates.

The PC market, which enjoyed a surge during the pandemic, has struggled to sustain momentum, with traditional demand weakening. AI-powered computers, while generating interest in corporate and educational circles, have yet to achieve widespread adoption.

Now, there are additional concerns that Donald Trump’s plans to fund tax cuts for the very rich while punishing those countries which do not acknowledge his greatness with tariffs might jack the price of PCs up by $300.

Morningstar analyst Eric Compton noted: "We have long warned that we did not expect artificial intelligence personal computers to lead to any structural change in demand for PCs, and we think this is perhaps what the market was disappointed with."

Adding to the challenges, the anticipated boost from Microsoft's shift from Windows 10 to Windows 11 has been slower than expected.

HP CEO Enrique Lores remarked: "Since the Windows 11 refresh has ramped slower than previous industry transitions, we expect to see the impact of the upgrade to be more pronounced in 2025."

Dell's AI server business was a bright spot, with revenues from its servers and networking unit soaring 58 per cent, driven by strong demand from cloud companies eager to leverage AI. However, analysts warned of potential headwinds from supply chain issues.

A slow rollout of Nvidia's next-generation AI chip, the Blackwell, has been attributed to a design flaw and limited semiconductor manufacturing capacity at Taiwan’s TSMC.

Barclays analysts cautioned: "The transition to Blackwell could be impacting the time to revenues for Dell. We are concerned that these Blackwell systems will pressure gross margin percentage even further."

Despite the setbacks, at least three analysts raised their price targets for Dell and HP, while one brokerage for each firm downgraded its stock. HP's shares are currently trading at 10.84 times analysts' profit estimates, compared to 15.51 for Dell and 30.94 for Microsoft.

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